Changes in extreme precipitation events in the Zambezi River basins based on <scp>CORDEX‐CORE</scp> models, Part <scp>II:</scp> Future projections under 1. <scp>5</scp> , 2. <scp>0</scp> , and 3. <scp>0°C</scp> global warming levels

This study examines the potential implications of 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C global warming levels (GWLs) on austral summer (November–March) extreme precipitation indices over Zambezi River basin (ZRB) relative to control period (1971–2000). We computed based daily data from observations Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)-Coordinated Output for Evaluations (CORE) multi-model ensemble mean (ENSMean). First, we evaluated performance CORDEX-CORE ENSMean in simulating six indices; number rainy days (RR1), simple intensity index (SDII), maximum consecutive wet (CWD), dry (CDD), heavy (R10), very (R20). The results indicate that can simulate spatial distributions ZRB. However, largely overestimates magnitudes RR1 CWD. projected changes show a decrease RR1, CWD, R10 under all GWLs, with robust pronounced GWL. In contrast, CDD SDII are increase regionally averaged median values (SDII CDD) (increase) GWLs ZRB sub-basins. probability density function (PDF) shows negative (positive) shifts sub-basins GWLs. R20 is (decrease) most western (eastern) Assessing an additional 0.5 1.5°C (1.0°C) (2.0°C) GWL limiting would restrict future exposure precipitation.